Tuesday, September 7, 2010

New month with old concerns

Forex Chart

  • Market moving on old stories
  • Australia has new PM Gillard but the aussie is not celebrating
  • No surprise with RBA or BoJ decisions
  • Sterling watching gilt market for directional clues
  • UK retail sales survey suggests modest August growth
The main stories in the early part of the week appear to be old ones that have been dusted off, slightly refreshed and sent out once again. The euro’s weakness overnight is owing to reports that the EU bank stress tests did not reveal all of the government debt they are holding (Wall Street Journal).  This follows on from reports yesterday that German banks may require more capital.  Furthermore, the BIS report of yesterday reminded us that the private sector deleveraging has a long way to go, with implications for both growth and currencies.  The main thing is to determine what is old news, what is speculation and what is a change of circumstances, although the trouble is that markets can move on all three, to varying degrees)...Read More

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