- Whatever comes of the US jobs data, it should not change the perception of a very jobless recovery
- Aussie weaker overnight on commodity price outlook
- More Japanese officials wary of unilateral intervention
- Trichet stretches further the definition of temporary
- More signs of switching into equities
Whatever the outcome of the US employment report today, it’s not going to change the wider perception that the pace of hiring in the US is way off that which typifies a normal recovery. On the current pace of private sector hiring, it would take nearly 7 years for employment to reach the peak seen in late 2007. Compare this to the ‘jobless recovery’ after the last recession and in terms of reaching pre-recession peaks of employment, the pace of hiring this time around is less than half that of 8 years ago. So, whilst markets will have their usual flurry around the numbers, it’s this wider point that needs to be remembered in terms of the implication for interest rates (staying low), bonds (remaining bid, bar early September asset allocation shifts) and FX (risk of more QE)...Read More
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